The HSI has reach out target of 22000. It been a very bullish week despite having only three trading days.
3 Months Daily Chart
On the daily chart, the HSI has move outside the Bollinger Band, indicating increasing volatility and showing the strength of the Bull. The HSI close on Friday at around 22200 level. The HSI has lift off from the 7 and 30 day EMA. Which seemed to tell me that in the short run, the HSI is a bit overvalue on a technical basis and it is likely to meet more selling pressure from traders next week. But the HSI will regain support if it fall back to the 30 day EMA.
1 Year Weekly Chart
The HSI has breakout from the trading range of 20000 to 22000. The HSI is staying above 13 and 30 week EMA with both EMA pointing upwards. All these are longer term bullish signs. I predict the HSI should be able to reach 25000 at the end of the year.
Overall I am bullish in the longer term, in the short term I mean few days to 1-2 weeks. The HSI is going to meet some selling pressure so I don't expect the HSI to move upward a lot. For me I will continue to hold on to my long positions.
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Saturday, 10 April 2010
Saturday, 3 April 2010
Hang Seng Index Market Outlook 03-04-2010
The HSI had continued to do well last week, reaching a even higher high level of 21500 for the last month. There is something I want to emphasis about this point, whenever a stock price or a index is reaching a higher high compare to the previous high level. We say the price is advancing well. Another well to put it is saying the bull is getting stronger because it was able to push the price up to a higher level. As I said before, an uptrend is characterized by higher peaks and higher troughs.
3 Months Daily Chart
It seems that the HSI is going to break above 21500 level and advance further to 22000. The HSI finished on Friday with a Bullish Bar. My definition of a Bullish bar is on that period the HSI open on the low end of the bar and close on the high end with price range having a higher high and higher low compare to the previous bar. I reckon this is quite a bullish signal on a daily chart. Some trader might see this signal as a trigger of entry for long position when this signal is associate with a short term uptrend (which it was in this case.) And also Bollinger Band had been narrow, so the premium for Call Option will be relatively cheap. On an option trader perspective, it can be a good opportunity to open a long Call on HSI last Friday. P.S. HSI had continue to stay above both 7 and 30 day EMA.
1 Year Weekly Chart
On the weekly chart, it shown a similar bullish bar last week. The distance between the 13 and 30 Week EMA had become more further apart. And both EMA are starting to turn up with HSI staying above both EMA. All these are bullish signs. In fact you can see the HSI has actually formed a trading range between the level 22000 and 20000 over the past 7 months. In my opinion, the Market was resting on this trading rest before it is going to form another big bullish move. Prior to this trading range, HSI had advanced from 12000 to 20000 which was a big move indeed. The market need some time to rest before it can advance further.
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3 Months Daily Chart
It seems that the HSI is going to break above 21500 level and advance further to 22000. The HSI finished on Friday with a Bullish Bar. My definition of a Bullish bar is on that period the HSI open on the low end of the bar and close on the high end with price range having a higher high and higher low compare to the previous bar. I reckon this is quite a bullish signal on a daily chart. Some trader might see this signal as a trigger of entry for long position when this signal is associate with a short term uptrend (which it was in this case.) And also Bollinger Band had been narrow, so the premium for Call Option will be relatively cheap. On an option trader perspective, it can be a good opportunity to open a long Call on HSI last Friday. P.S. HSI had continue to stay above both 7 and 30 day EMA.
1 Year Weekly Chart
On the weekly chart, it shown a similar bullish bar last week. The distance between the 13 and 30 Week EMA had become more further apart. And both EMA are starting to turn up with HSI staying above both EMA. All these are bullish signs. In fact you can see the HSI has actually formed a trading range between the level 22000 and 20000 over the past 7 months. In my opinion, the Market was resting on this trading rest before it is going to form another big bullish move. Prior to this trading range, HSI had advanced from 12000 to 20000 which was a big move indeed. The market need some time to rest before it can advance further.
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Trading Room
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Monday, 29 March 2010
Hang Seng Index Market Outlook 29-03-2010
The HSI has been moving sideway last week. With the open on Monday and the close on Friday at around 21000 to 21100 level. Which means it hasn't really moved at all.
3 Months Daily Chart
The HSI test support level at around 20500 and receive good support from that level. With HSI ending at the level of 7 and 30 days EMA. HSI is likely to continue its upward move on this coming week.
1 Year Weekly Chart
HSI has tested the support level provided by the 30 week EMA. With HSI staying above both 13 and 30 weeks EMA.
Overall, both short and long term I am still bullish. The market is having a bit of a correction after a bullish run. It is taking a break before it is going to move to a higher level.
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3 Months Daily Chart
The HSI test support level at around 20500 and receive good support from that level. With HSI ending at the level of 7 and 30 days EMA. HSI is likely to continue its upward move on this coming week.
1 Year Weekly Chart
HSI has tested the support level provided by the 30 week EMA. With HSI staying above both 13 and 30 weeks EMA.
Overall, both short and long term I am still bullish. The market is having a bit of a correction after a bullish run. It is taking a break before it is going to move to a higher level.
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Trading Room
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Saturday, 20 March 2010
Hang Seng Index Market Outlook 20-03-2010
The Hang Seng Index had continued its upward move. Reaching a higher high compare to the previous week. Everything is going well in this current uptrend. The trend is slowly building its strength.
3 Months Daily Chart
The HSI is staying above the 7 and 30 day EMA. The market has been moving in a particular pattern which involved a big upward moved in one day then followed by few days of consolidation. As far as the current uptrend is concern, it was making higher peaks and troughs. Typical seen in an uptrend.
1 Year Weekly Chart
The HSI remained above the 13 and 30 week EMA. With the 13 week EMA started to slope upwards.
Overall both the current and long term trend are UP. The market is likely to test higher highs with the latest resistance on 22000 points.
Article by
Trading Room
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3 Months Daily Chart
The HSI is staying above the 7 and 30 day EMA. The market has been moving in a particular pattern which involved a big upward moved in one day then followed by few days of consolidation. As far as the current uptrend is concern, it was making higher peaks and troughs. Typical seen in an uptrend.
1 Year Weekly Chart
The HSI remained above the 13 and 30 week EMA. With the 13 week EMA started to slope upwards.
Overall both the current and long term trend are UP. The market is likely to test higher highs with the latest resistance on 22000 points.
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Trading Room
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Sunday, 14 March 2010
Hang Seng Index Market Outlook 14-03-2010
The HSI has continue to be strong last week, staying above 21000 point.
3 Months Daily Chart
The beginning of a short term uptrend is forming. 21500 points is a very likely to be reach in 1-2 weeks time. Continue to be bullish.
1 Year Weekly Chart
HSI has stay above both 13 and 30 week EMA. The direction of both EMA are going sideways. The market had continue to recover from the previous correction.
Overall I am bullish on both short and long term.
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3 Months Daily Chart
The beginning of a short term uptrend is forming. 21500 points is a very likely to be reach in 1-2 weeks time. Continue to be bullish.
1 Year Weekly Chart
HSI has stay above both 13 and 30 week EMA. The direction of both EMA are going sideways. The market had continue to recover from the previous correction.
Overall I am bullish on both short and long term.
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Trading Room
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Saturday, 6 March 2010
Hang Seng Index Market Outlook 06-03-2010
Look like the HSI has continue to strengthen over the past week. It seems like the beginning of a short term up trend is going to form.
3 Months Daily Chart
On the 3 months chart, HSI has made a new high up to 21000 points and it has breakout from the resistance line at around 20500. All this is looking bullish. It has been forming a higher low and higher high. With the lowest trough at around 19500 then a higher trough at 20000. And I think 20500 will form a good support line for HSI. One more point to look at is HSI has also move above the 7 day and 30 day EMA.
1 Year Weekly Chart
The HSI has continue to form a nice base of around 20000. The HSI is resting nicely on the 13 and 30 week EMA.
In conclusion, in both short and long term, I am very bullish about the HSI with a short term target of around 22000.
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Trading Room
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3 Months Daily Chart
On the 3 months chart, HSI has made a new high up to 21000 points and it has breakout from the resistance line at around 20500. All this is looking bullish. It has been forming a higher low and higher high. With the lowest trough at around 19500 then a higher trough at 20000. And I think 20500 will form a good support line for HSI. One more point to look at is HSI has also move above the 7 day and 30 day EMA.
1 Year Weekly Chart
The HSI has continue to form a nice base of around 20000. The HSI is resting nicely on the 13 and 30 week EMA.
In conclusion, in both short and long term, I am very bullish about the HSI with a short term target of around 22000.
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Trading Room
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HSBC and Pacific Basin Company result analysis
It was a pretty good week for the HSI. It has gone up to 21000 points then come back to end at around 20700 points. To be honest I am quite disappointed with the result of HSBC and Pacific Basin. Especially to HSBC result. So before I go on with the market outlook, I will talk about the result analysis briefly. With HSBC (5), it shown a decline in Profit before tax of about 20% compare to year 2008. Despite this, the company had made a pretty good job in reducing its tax. Thus making it Profit after tax of $6.6 Billion which was a slight increase compare to year 2008. So it other words, you can say its net profit after tax is almost the same as the year before. But if you look at the EPS, you can see a decrease from 41 cents US to 34 cents US. It is mainly due to the share right issue, which cause a dilution effects on the EPS. For the year 2009, HSBC is pay DPS of 34 cents US. Which means it is giving out 100% of its profit to its owner/shareholder. And for Pacific Basin (2343), its shown a decline in profit of about 70%. Which is expected by most brokers because of the effect of economic crisis. I hope this is going to be the least profitable year for Pacific Basin and with the ongoing economic recovery, I am still very optimistic about the company future. With a DPS of 0.23 cents HK, considering my buy price of $5.35, I should be getting a dividend return of around 4.2% p.a. In conclusion, I will continue to hold on to these two companies.
Article by
Trading Room
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Article by
Trading Room
www.tradingforreal.blogspot.com
Sunday, 28 February 2010
Hang Seng Index Market Outlook 28-02-2010
It seems the market had made a good recovery from 20000 pt. to 20600 pt. The double top I spot last week on the daily chart has been rejected coz the HSI failed to go any lower than 20000.
3 months Daily Chart
We can see the HSI is still in a downtrend but it had definitely slow down. The HSI is forming a base between 20500 to 19500. It seems to me HSI will continue to rise in the short term especially with the help of HSBC. On the short term I am aiming at 21000.
1 year Weekly Chart
On the weekly chart, HSI has continue to consolidate around the 20000. It is still close to the 13 week and 30 week EMA. With both MA close together. It seems to me HSI is about to turn back up with a goal of 22000 pt. The consolidate around 20000 has formed a good base for HSI to move up further.
Overall I am still Bullish with the market. With the announcement of result for HSBC (5)on coming Monday 1st of March 2010, as I have said before. I am confident that the result will continue to improve. And on the 2nd of March 2010, Pacific Basin (2343) is announcing its final result as well. I am also confidence that it will be a good one. I currently had holdings of both stocks I have mentioned.
Word of the Week: Keep learning, the more you learn, the better you are in any given field. At the moment I am committed to spend 1 hour a day reading books about shares, real estate and wealth creation.
Article by
Trading Room
www.tradingforreal.blogspot.com
3 months Daily Chart
We can see the HSI is still in a downtrend but it had definitely slow down. The HSI is forming a base between 20500 to 19500. It seems to me HSI will continue to rise in the short term especially with the help of HSBC. On the short term I am aiming at 21000.
1 year Weekly Chart
On the weekly chart, HSI has continue to consolidate around the 20000. It is still close to the 13 week and 30 week EMA. With both MA close together. It seems to me HSI is about to turn back up with a goal of 22000 pt. The consolidate around 20000 has formed a good base for HSI to move up further.
Overall I am still Bullish with the market. With the announcement of result for HSBC (5)on coming Monday 1st of March 2010, as I have said before. I am confident that the result will continue to improve. And on the 2nd of March 2010, Pacific Basin (2343) is announcing its final result as well. I am also confidence that it will be a good one. I currently had holdings of both stocks I have mentioned.
Word of the Week: Keep learning, the more you learn, the better you are in any given field. At the moment I am committed to spend 1 hour a day reading books about shares, real estate and wealth creation.
Article by
Trading Room
www.tradingforreal.blogspot.com
Sunday, 21 February 2010
Hang Seng Index Market Outlook 21-02-2010
Well it has been another volatile week for the Hang Seng Index. The HSI reach a peak of around 20500 point then fall back to around 19900.
3 Months daily Chart
On this chart, the HSI is still in a down trend. Its has recently formed a possible double top with the top at the level around 20500. Its seems like the HSI will drop further to around 19000-19500 in the short term.
1 Year Weekly Chart
The HSI remained below both 13 week and 30 week EMA. It was consolidating around the 20000 level for the past month. The distance between the 13 week and 30 week EMA are getting closer. If the 13 week EMA crossed down from the 30 week EMA, that will be a death cross. Which signalled possible bear market. That's what the technical side look like.
Overall I believe the economy is recovering well and I don't think a market crash will come in the near future. So what does this means, it means the current market correction is providing us with a good opportunity to buy good company at a fair price. Also HSBC is going to announce its final result on the 1st of March 2010. I am very confident that the result will be a good one. I think HSBC will go back to $100 within this year.
Article by
Trading Room
www.tradingforreal.blogspot.com
3 Months daily Chart
On this chart, the HSI is still in a down trend. Its has recently formed a possible double top with the top at the level around 20500. Its seems like the HSI will drop further to around 19000-19500 in the short term.
1 Year Weekly Chart
The HSI remained below both 13 week and 30 week EMA. It was consolidating around the 20000 level for the past month. The distance between the 13 week and 30 week EMA are getting closer. If the 13 week EMA crossed down from the 30 week EMA, that will be a death cross. Which signalled possible bear market. That's what the technical side look like.
Overall I believe the economy is recovering well and I don't think a market crash will come in the near future. So what does this means, it means the current market correction is providing us with a good opportunity to buy good company at a fair price. Also HSBC is going to announce its final result on the 1st of March 2010. I am very confident that the result will be a good one. I think HSBC will go back to $100 within this year.
Article by
Trading Room
www.tradingforreal.blogspot.com
Monday, 8 February 2010
Hang Seng Index Market Outlook 07-02-2010
Well well it has been another bearish week for the HSI. The market had already corrected by about 14% from its top at 23000. The next supporting level will probable be 19000 and maybe 18500.
3 Months Daily Chart
On the three months daily chart, the market is in a confirm downtrend. It is very likely that the market will go even lower this coming week.
1 year Weekly Chart
The HSI is staying below the 30 wk EMA. The 13 wk EMA and the 30 wk EMA are both turning down. All these are bearish signal. Despite all this, I believe we are still in a bull market. This is a correction that needs to be happen after the HSI had rally from 12000 to 23000. The overall economic fundamental are good. So it there is some good company at attractive price. I will recommend buying those company.
Remember Buy when others are selling and Sell when others are buying.
Article by
Trading Room
www.tradingforreal.blogspot.com
3 Months Daily Chart
On the three months daily chart, the market is in a confirm downtrend. It is very likely that the market will go even lower this coming week.
1 year Weekly Chart
The HSI is staying below the 30 wk EMA. The 13 wk EMA and the 30 wk EMA are both turning down. All these are bearish signal. Despite all this, I believe we are still in a bull market. This is a correction that needs to be happen after the HSI had rally from 12000 to 23000. The overall economic fundamental are good. So it there is some good company at attractive price. I will recommend buying those company.
Remember Buy when others are selling and Sell when others are buying.
Article by
Trading Room
www.tradingforreal.blogspot.com
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