It seems the market had made a good recovery from 20000 pt. to 20600 pt. The double top I spot last week on the daily chart has been rejected coz the HSI failed to go any lower than 20000.
3 months Daily Chart
We can see the HSI is still in a downtrend but it had definitely slow down. The HSI is forming a base between 20500 to 19500. It seems to me HSI will continue to rise in the short term especially with the help of HSBC. On the short term I am aiming at 21000.
1 year Weekly Chart
On the weekly chart, HSI has continue to consolidate around the 20000. It is still close to the 13 week and 30 week EMA. With both MA close together. It seems to me HSI is about to turn back up with a goal of 22000 pt. The consolidate around 20000 has formed a good base for HSI to move up further.
Overall I am still Bullish with the market. With the announcement of result for HSBC (5)on coming Monday 1st of March 2010, as I have said before. I am confident that the result will continue to improve. And on the 2nd of March 2010, Pacific Basin (2343) is announcing its final result as well. I am also confidence that it will be a good one. I currently had holdings of both stocks I have mentioned.
Word of the Week: Keep learning, the more you learn, the better you are in any given field. At the moment I am committed to spend 1 hour a day reading books about shares, real estate and wealth creation.
Article by
Trading Room
www.tradingforreal.blogspot.com
Sunday, 28 February 2010
Sunday, 21 February 2010
Hang Seng Index Market Outlook 21-02-2010
Well it has been another volatile week for the Hang Seng Index. The HSI reach a peak of around 20500 point then fall back to around 19900.
3 Months daily Chart
On this chart, the HSI is still in a down trend. Its has recently formed a possible double top with the top at the level around 20500. Its seems like the HSI will drop further to around 19000-19500 in the short term.
1 Year Weekly Chart
The HSI remained below both 13 week and 30 week EMA. It was consolidating around the 20000 level for the past month. The distance between the 13 week and 30 week EMA are getting closer. If the 13 week EMA crossed down from the 30 week EMA, that will be a death cross. Which signalled possible bear market. That's what the technical side look like.
Overall I believe the economy is recovering well and I don't think a market crash will come in the near future. So what does this means, it means the current market correction is providing us with a good opportunity to buy good company at a fair price. Also HSBC is going to announce its final result on the 1st of March 2010. I am very confident that the result will be a good one. I think HSBC will go back to $100 within this year.
Article by
Trading Room
www.tradingforreal.blogspot.com
3 Months daily Chart
On this chart, the HSI is still in a down trend. Its has recently formed a possible double top with the top at the level around 20500. Its seems like the HSI will drop further to around 19000-19500 in the short term.
1 Year Weekly Chart
The HSI remained below both 13 week and 30 week EMA. It was consolidating around the 20000 level for the past month. The distance between the 13 week and 30 week EMA are getting closer. If the 13 week EMA crossed down from the 30 week EMA, that will be a death cross. Which signalled possible bear market. That's what the technical side look like.
Overall I believe the economy is recovering well and I don't think a market crash will come in the near future. So what does this means, it means the current market correction is providing us with a good opportunity to buy good company at a fair price. Also HSBC is going to announce its final result on the 1st of March 2010. I am very confident that the result will be a good one. I think HSBC will go back to $100 within this year.
Article by
Trading Room
www.tradingforreal.blogspot.com
Monday, 8 February 2010
Hang Seng Index Market Outlook 07-02-2010
Well well it has been another bearish week for the HSI. The market had already corrected by about 14% from its top at 23000. The next supporting level will probable be 19000 and maybe 18500.
3 Months Daily Chart
On the three months daily chart, the market is in a confirm downtrend. It is very likely that the market will go even lower this coming week.
1 year Weekly Chart
The HSI is staying below the 30 wk EMA. The 13 wk EMA and the 30 wk EMA are both turning down. All these are bearish signal. Despite all this, I believe we are still in a bull market. This is a correction that needs to be happen after the HSI had rally from 12000 to 23000. The overall economic fundamental are good. So it there is some good company at attractive price. I will recommend buying those company.
Remember Buy when others are selling and Sell when others are buying.
Article by
Trading Room
www.tradingforreal.blogspot.com
3 Months Daily Chart
On the three months daily chart, the market is in a confirm downtrend. It is very likely that the market will go even lower this coming week.
1 year Weekly Chart
The HSI is staying below the 30 wk EMA. The 13 wk EMA and the 30 wk EMA are both turning down. All these are bearish signal. Despite all this, I believe we are still in a bull market. This is a correction that needs to be happen after the HSI had rally from 12000 to 23000. The overall economic fundamental are good. So it there is some good company at attractive price. I will recommend buying those company.
Remember Buy when others are selling and Sell when others are buying.
Article by
Trading Room
www.tradingforreal.blogspot.com
Sunday, 24 January 2010
Hang Seng Index Market Outlook 24-01-2010
The HSI had breakdown from the support level at 21000. Overall it has been a bearish week last week.
3 Months Daily Chart
On the daily chart, HSI was in a trading Channel between 21000-22500. It had just broken the support level at 21000. Its is possible that is will hit 20000. The current 3 months trend is sideway trend and possible break out from 21000.
1 Year Weekly Chart
On the weekly chart, the HSI is lying on the support level of 30 wk EMA. Meaning the current index is relatively undervalue or oversold. A possible big rebound will be on the way. The current 1 year weekly Trend is UP.
Overall the long term trend is UP but the current 3 month trend is sideway. I think the index will rebound very soon.
Article by
Trading Room
www.tradingforreal.blogspot.com
3 Months Daily Chart
On the daily chart, HSI was in a trading Channel between 21000-22500. It had just broken the support level at 21000. Its is possible that is will hit 20000. The current 3 months trend is sideway trend and possible break out from 21000.
1 Year Weekly Chart
On the weekly chart, the HSI is lying on the support level of 30 wk EMA. Meaning the current index is relatively undervalue or oversold. A possible big rebound will be on the way. The current 1 year weekly Trend is UP.
Overall the long term trend is UP but the current 3 month trend is sideway. I think the index will rebound very soon.
Article by
Trading Room
www.tradingforreal.blogspot.com
Thursday, 21 January 2010
Wealth Creation
So what is wealth creation, it seems like very broad topic with many different paths and vehicles to wealth and abundance. With this article, I am going to simplified the road to wealth creation into three main paths and they are as follows:
1. Real Estate
2. Shares
3. Business
To me it is really that simple, that's the road to wealth creation. People create wealth either through Property, Shares or Business. With shares, I didn't intend to mean only the share market, but also the currency market, bonds market and commodities market. There is no true answer to whether one is better than another. You can achieve great wealth by just focusing in one of this field or you can choose a combination of all of them. For me, I have invest most of my capital in the share market. And when I have achieve enough capital gain from the market, I will move my capital to the Real Estate market. And business is something for me to consider later on. You might have notice I didn't include the word Job in the path to wealth. That is something everyone need to think about. To me I don't think the salary from the Job position will be enough to make me Rich. Quote from Robert Kiyosaki Rich Dad "Who is going to pay you 1 Million a year? What about 5 Millions a year? and What about 10 Millions a year?" So if you want to obtain great wealth, it is my opinion that you need to work on at least one of this field. Keep learning and reading about the field you choose to be in and keep taking action. Then great wealth will follow.
Article by
Trading Room
www.tradingforreal.blogspot.com
1. Real Estate
2. Shares
3. Business
To me it is really that simple, that's the road to wealth creation. People create wealth either through Property, Shares or Business. With shares, I didn't intend to mean only the share market, but also the currency market, bonds market and commodities market. There is no true answer to whether one is better than another. You can achieve great wealth by just focusing in one of this field or you can choose a combination of all of them. For me, I have invest most of my capital in the share market. And when I have achieve enough capital gain from the market, I will move my capital to the Real Estate market. And business is something for me to consider later on. You might have notice I didn't include the word Job in the path to wealth. That is something everyone need to think about. To me I don't think the salary from the Job position will be enough to make me Rich. Quote from Robert Kiyosaki Rich Dad "Who is going to pay you 1 Million a year? What about 5 Millions a year? and What about 10 Millions a year?" So if you want to obtain great wealth, it is my opinion that you need to work on at least one of this field. Keep learning and reading about the field you choose to be in and keep taking action. Then great wealth will follow.
Article by
Trading Room
www.tradingforreal.blogspot.com
Sunday, 17 January 2010
Market Review 17 Jan 2010
This is my first market review on this blog which I will talk about my opinion on the Hang Seng Index in general.
The overall market trend is UP and we are still in the Stage 2 of a bull market. On the daily chart, HSI had fall below the 30 day EMA indicating a pullback from the recent high. Which I expect the HSI will retest the 22000 level very soon. The closest support level for HSI will be 21000. On the weekly chart, HSI had fall back to the 13 week EMA. This MA should provide some support to HSI. The HSI is still well above the 30 week EMA which is at the level around 21000. The 30 week EMA is the key weekly moving average that we use to different between overall bull and bear market.
Article by
Trading Room
www.tradingforreal.blogspot.com
The overall market trend is UP and we are still in the Stage 2 of a bull market. On the daily chart, HSI had fall below the 30 day EMA indicating a pullback from the recent high. Which I expect the HSI will retest the 22000 level very soon. The closest support level for HSI will be 21000. On the weekly chart, HSI had fall back to the 13 week EMA. This MA should provide some support to HSI. The HSI is still well above the 30 week EMA which is at the level around 21000. The 30 week EMA is the key weekly moving average that we use to different between overall bull and bear market.
Article by
Trading Room
www.tradingforreal.blogspot.com
Friday, 15 January 2010
Return On Investment (R.O.I.)
I have used the term ROI on one of my option trade with BCM which you can see on the lower left corner. So what does ROI means? It means Return on Investment which is how much return you get from your investment compare to the capital you used as investment. Let say I invest $100 and my ROI on investment is 20% which mean I profit $20 from my original investment of $100. And on my BCM option trade, I calculate the ROI a bit differently. As every time I write a Put option, I always put up the capital required if my option does get exercise and I need to buy the share at that price. So for my BCM trade, my capital outlay will be $9 per share. That i will put is as my original investment. My return is -$0.03 when I closed the trade. So the ROI will be -0.03 divided by 9 times 100 which is -0.3%. Which is minimum compare to the potential profit I can get with Pacific basin stock. That's why I do the switch. "One of my opinion about wealth creation is you get to be flexible in your approach to investment. "
Article by
Trading Room
www.tradingforreal.blogspot.com
Article by
Trading Room
www.tradingforreal.blogspot.com
Monday, 11 January 2010
Investor VS Trader
So what is the different between an Investor and a Trader on the sharemarket. In my opinion is the main different between the two is the time frame. Usually trader will have a much shorter time frame on holding their trades compare to investor. When I meant short it can range from Seconds to days or at most a few weeks. On the other hand for Investor, their usually time frame is probably from months to few years or even a decade. In my opinion, it is easier to be an investor.
Article by
Trading Room
www.tradingforreal.blogspot.com
Article by
Trading Room
www.tradingforreal.blogspot.com
Wednesday, 6 January 2010
Pacific Basin 2343
Today the price of Pacific Basin went up to $6.3, which will give me a return of 6.3-5.35 = 0.95 or a ROI of 17% if I sell the stock today. Which is ROI of 17% in 2 weeks time. It is a very good profit. But I didn't sell my stock. My mind is telling me to sell it now and get the fast return which a quite a good profit. However I keep reminding myself that I am a Investor not a Trader. If I am a trader, I will definitely close my position. As an Investor, I buy the company share because I want to own part of the company. And I will hold onto it until it reach my target of $15.35 which might take 1-2 year or even more. Also the company is going to announce its 2009 annual result on the beginning of March 2010. My opinion is it will be a good result which I base my opinion on 1) the BDI index which had continue to be strong on the 2nd half of 2009 and also the high contract coverage with more than 90% for the year 2009. And for people with shorter time frame, I will suggest hold the stock until it announce it result. Another advantage as a investor is I also enjoy receiving dividend from this company. The dividend policy of this company is a payout ratio of 50%, which means they will give me 50% of there net profit. So the more profitable the company, the bigger my dividend payment.
Article by
Trading Room
www.tradingforreal.blogspot.com
Article by
Trading Room
www.tradingforreal.blogspot.com
Saturday, 26 December 2009
My Special Christmas Present
I have closed my BCM position on 2009/12/23 and on the same day and the following day I have purchased share of Pacific Basin (2343) with an average price of $5.35 per share. Which I think is a very good investment opportunity for long term.
Reason for entry:
Actually I have been buying share in 2343 since year 2008 in my own share portfolio. My first purchase was on 2008/08/11 at a price of $9.88 per share. Since then I have continue to increase my position in 2343 during the financial crisis. My current average buy price is around $6.
Fundamental Analysis
Pacific Basin is a company involved with shipping and transport of goods all around the world. The industry had a really bad year last year because of the financial crisis and the fall of BDI index. But to me it give me opportunity to buy this stock close to it net book value of $5.76 per share. Which is a good buy. The stock had fall from a high of $18.70 with it lowest at around $3. The company is very profitable ROE 35% and Net profit margin 24% according to last year annual report. With a current ratio of 4.4 and a very strong balance sheet. A cash to total debt ratio of 1:1.2. Which means if necessary the company should be able to pay off all its debt with its cash.
Technical Analysis
The share had been trending up for more than 6 months. So the overall trend is UP. Recently the share price had drop below the 30 week EMA which mean good value.
Plan
Invest for long term which aim for a price target of $15.35 which equal to around 200% return. In order to take this opportunity I had incurred a small loss from the option position.
Article by
Trading Room
www.tradingforreal.blogspot.com
Reason for entry:
Actually I have been buying share in 2343 since year 2008 in my own share portfolio. My first purchase was on 2008/08/11 at a price of $9.88 per share. Since then I have continue to increase my position in 2343 during the financial crisis. My current average buy price is around $6.
Fundamental Analysis
Pacific Basin is a company involved with shipping and transport of goods all around the world. The industry had a really bad year last year because of the financial crisis and the fall of BDI index. But to me it give me opportunity to buy this stock close to it net book value of $5.76 per share. Which is a good buy. The stock had fall from a high of $18.70 with it lowest at around $3. The company is very profitable ROE 35% and Net profit margin 24% according to last year annual report. With a current ratio of 4.4 and a very strong balance sheet. A cash to total debt ratio of 1:1.2. Which means if necessary the company should be able to pay off all its debt with its cash.
Technical Analysis
The share had been trending up for more than 6 months. So the overall trend is UP. Recently the share price had drop below the 30 week EMA which mean good value.
Plan
Invest for long term which aim for a price target of $15.35 which equal to around 200% return. In order to take this opportunity I had incurred a small loss from the option position.
Article by
Trading Room
www.tradingforreal.blogspot.com
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